🔮 Long-term Projections

Title, Europe and relegation probabilities per competition — Monte Carlo from current Elo and standings.

🔮 Season Projection

2026/27

10,000 simulations of the 380 remaining matches, from current Elo and standings. Doesn't account for transfers or injuries.

Team	Title	Champions League	Releg.	xPts
Man City	47%	92%	<1%	72
Arsenal	35%	87%	<1%	71
Man United	6%	48%	1%	61
Bournemouth	5%	43%	1%	61
Aston Villa	2%	26%	2%	57
Liverpool	2%	22%	3%	56
Nott'm Forest	1%	12%	6%	53
Sunderland	1%	12%	6%	53
Brentford	<1%	9%	8%	52
Brighton	<1%	10%	9%	51
Leeds	<1%	8%	10%	51
Coventry	<1%	6%	14%	49
Fulham	<1%	6%	15%	49
Crystal Palace	<1%	5%	14%	49
Newcastle	<1%	4%	17%	48
Chelsea	<1%	5%	16%	49
Hull	<1%	4%	19%	48
Everton	<1%	3%	23%	46
Tottenham	—	1%	45%	42
Ipswich	—	<1%	92%	31

Man CityArsenalMan UnitedBournemouthAston Villa

2025/26 · final

Champions LeagueRelegation